As mentioned, since the explosion on April 20, the BP Plc stock market cap has fallen from $187.3 billion to $137.6 billion - $49.9 billion, or 27 percent. That is $16.10 per share. In contrast, the average decline in BP’s peer group of Royal Dutch Shell, China Petroleum Ltd., Exxon-Mobil and Chevron is 15.1 percent.
Keeping the math simple presently, this suggests the market has assigned about half or $8.05 ($16.10/2) of BP’s share loss to expectations of its total reduction in value from the blowout. As the workout evolves, these expectations will likely fluctuate, and become more meaningful.
The $8.05 per share additional risk assigned BP common stock suggests the present value of future remedial expenditures is $25.0 billion ($8.05 x 3.1 billion shares outstanding). The stock market has become a prediction market, estimating the cost for the company will be $25.0 billion.
Monday, May 31, 2010
BP is currently worth around $137 billion. Remedial expenditures for the oil spill currently estimated at $25 billion
# 8 Surf where the surfers are
Today is different. I've scoped out the conditions at another surfing spot, down the road from my pad. The waves here are better, but that's not all. They may be bigger and more muscular, the sets may have excellent definition, problem is when they crash down it's either on the beach or on less than a foot of water. I know this. And I know the surfers out here know their shit. This is my 8th day out and I don't know shit, but you can't stay in kindergarten forever.
There are about twenty or so surfers mixing it up. They know to catch the wave while it's in an advanced building phase, do their switchbacks and showing off, and then basically sweep back over the lip just as it collapses. My problem is I'm still struggling to stand for more than 2 seconds, I'm not really at the point where I can get my ass from A to B at will. It's more a case that I get up and then the wave owns my ass.
A few times I swear a shark longer than my board has just slipped under me, but after the fourth float-by I realise it's a sort of flat piece of rock that's sort of long and jagged with a shark-like shape just 4-5 feet below me. It's weird to have rock like that when there's sand everywhere else. At the other beach I mistook a large blue canvas bag for some alien ocean creature. Settle down...focus...catch a wave if you can.
I'm surfing around 10 metres away from the surfers. You'd think I'd be getting exactly the same waves but there's a slight slant to the strand here, and if you watch the foam, you can see the waves collapse and lose momentum here worse than down the road. But that's okay. It's close enough. I'm here to learn how to pop, and also to play in the vicinity of the big boys, not go around like some dog with his tail between his legs all day every day. Adapt or go and play with your mouse.
I can immediately sense the muscle of these waves. Yep, here it's all bigger, faster and harder. That means I have to pop. I've evolved from a marinaded steak on the grill, to wors on the braai, to scrambled egg and now I'm about at the speed of a pancake flip. Still not quite a pop, but that's why I'm here - to take that learning curve straight up.
I take a beating.
At one point my shoulder hits the seabed hard and I'm feeling a bit like Atlas, except it hurts too much to shrug. A little later and I swallow a teacup of salt. Yummy. I take a few pounding blows of the surf itself - DOOOOF DOOOOOOOOFF DOOOOOOOOOOFFFF.
I think it's at the point - about an hour into the session - that a petite blonde walks along the beach, that I suddenly grow a set of balls [don't ask me what happened to the one's I had, I may have left them on my towel or next to my mouse at home].
Anyway I end up catching a major wave and disappear in a cloud of froth, board shooting out like a missile launched from a submarine, my own feet and elbows punching me in the face, sky vs earth unknown for numerous seconds. The very next wave I do something even more daft, I catch it and drop into the canyon below and feel the full force of the seabed, the board and the water trying to turn a human being into a jellyfish.
What is happening though is that even on the waves I don't quite catch I get up. I've picked up speed, and a lot of strength. I'm not fucking around like I'm a bartender standing, pretending my surfboard is the bar. I'm lying on it, and it's not that tiring. I'm also doing something out there that's important. I'm watching the other guys. Watching and learning. I catch another wave, not perfectly, and sort of get up on one leg with the other still in a kneeling position. It's a fuck up but I stay on for a good few seconds.
The sun sinks and disappears and slowly the surfers pack up and the fishermen arrive. The houses and buildings visible from the strand blink yellow squares at me, and then the fishermen turn on their torches. Eventually all the surfers are gone, it's just three bodyboarders and me. By the time I step onto the beach the first stars have come out. As I walk away the sea is empty. But tomorrow, when they're all at work or at school, I'll be back.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Sandee is more forthright. He told the US congress that numerous references were made to World Cup attacks in closed-frequency radio broadcasts and telephone intercepts this month in Mauritania, Algeria, Mali, Pakistan and Yemen.
"Information confirms that several venues will be targeted, some simultaneously, others at random. Reference is also made to the possibility of a kamikaze-type attack."
SHOOT: As far as I'm concerned a World Cup in South Africa is an ideal target for terrorists, because it is such a ridiculously easy target. Porous borders, rampant domestic crime, corruption [even in the SAPS] and of course the inherent social instability. Any country with massive amounts of poor people also provides an ideal breeding ground for extremists and criminal opportunists.
"It's impossible to tell. It's simply unknown if capabilities for large-scale, orchestrated attacks exist."
Saturday, May 29, 2010
SHOOT: Hopefully some good can come out of this disaster. Tighter regulations for a start, stricter safety controls.
Greek crisis cost $146 billion. Cost of resolving US banks now at $100 billion. Number of banks on the FDIC's confidential "problem" list jumps to 775
140 banks failed in 2009, twenty-five banks failed in 2008, the year the financial crisis struck with force, and only three succumbed in 2007.
SHOOT: By this time last year 36 banks folded in the US. Compare that to 78 this year, it's more than double. Still think this is a recovery?
The number of bank failures is expected to peak this year and to be slightly higher than the 140 that fell in 2009.
He likened the effort to pushing food into a reluctant baby's mouth -- it only works if the force of the stuff going down is more than the force of what's coming up.
"It's obvious that the baby's spitting the baby food back" because the pressure pushing up from the well is stronger, Bea said.
SHOOT: I see a lot of crap still shooting out at obviously high pressure. So I hope their plan B has already started. Hurricane season starts in 2 days, and that can make things an awful lot more difficult than it already is.
SHOOT: The Exxon Valdez was 11 million. The new estimate of 39 million makes this almost 4 times larger than the largest ever spill. BP are breaking the #1 rule of disaster management, which is 'maintain transparency'.
Zappa says it is clear from the pictures seen in this video that the cleanup booms are simply overmatched
SHOOT: It's a decent flick, but a downer. We know there were no WMD's, and we don't see Bourne in Iraq we see Damon becoming a journalist. You'll come out enraged at how dumb the media was, and still are, and how, like sheep, so many of us can be. But this is an unusual, and unusually serious flick, in that it conscientiously asks us to pursue something we ordinarily don't care much about. The real truth. Most of the time we just want to be entertained, we just want what we want. So when the media says let's go to war in Iraq, we just say Yeah man yeah! We're kinda like sheep: baaaaa. Maybe that's why I'm not that into this flick.
Back in 2003 before Iraq was invaded, before WMD were even an issue, while the media was saying drill baby drill, I mean kill baby kill, pretty much everyone did the sheep thing and supported the war. Because the fucked up moronic media said so. Did the media see the financial crisis coming? No. The media is about as bright as 7th grader. In 2003 I was saying: uh...the 9/11 terrorists are all dead, and they were from Yemen, Saudi Arabia. So sorry, invading Iraq is wrong, period. But I suspected there was some other justification.
Hello, if you want to go to Iraq to build police stations to secure your access to oil go for it, but don't count on public support if you tell them the truth. On the other hand, if you think you can afford a war and PR nightmare be my guest, and apparently the upper echelons of power did think it was worth it. Everyone fell for the WMD slash 9/11 ruse though, and you tell me if that loss of credibility has been worth the price of oil? Maybe it has...
Read the New York Times review here. AO Scott gives it a lot more credit than I do.
Perhaps the filmmakers would argue that the chain of command in Baghdad was a mess by this point, but it’s particularly hard to believe the leeway Damon’s Miller has to venture off-piste and pursue his private theories, barely without reprimand.
SHOOT: Excellent article from the New York Times. Have a look, in particular, to page 2, and the work done on schizophrenics etc.
For example, researchers have discovered that some areas of the brain combine information from several senses. Vision, hearing and touch are initially processed in the primary sensory regions. But then they flow together, like tributaries into a river, to create the wholeness of a person’s perceptions. A dog is visually recognized far more quickly if it is simultaneously accompanied by the sound of its bark.
OBE's: by electrically stimulating the angular gyrus, a part of the temporal parietal junction in the brain, a doctor can induce OBEs.OBEs are controlled by a region of the higher brain, which is clinically dead when NDEs occur. What's more, it seems logical to believe that the higher brain must still function in order to interpret the sensations produced by the REM intrusion triggered in the brain stem.
SHOOT: This implies that spiritual or religious experiences are really experienced in our brains.
It is estimated that as many as 18 percent of people who have been resuscitated after cardiac arrest have reported a near-death experience.
A brain-dead person should not be able to form new memories -- he shouldn't have any consciousness at all, really. So how can anything but a metaphysical explanation cover NDEs?