Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Catastrophic food shortages are possible in 2010, not just in the U.S. but all around the world

For the past several decades, most Americans went to college to get a non-productive job on Wall Street and nobody went to school to become a farmer. There is currently a major lack of farmers in the U.S. and to make matters worse, the Real Estate bubble destroyed immeasurable amounts of farmland to build houses we didn't need and couldn't afford.

Inventories of agricultural products are the lowest they have been in decades yet the prices of many agricultural commodities are down 70% to 80% from their all time highs adjusted for real inflation. Catastrophic food shortages are possible in 2010, not just in the U.S. but all around the world.

SHOOT: I also think we'll see some uncomfortably large changes this year.
1) We will learn the 2009 holiday shopping season was a bust.
2) We will see a major decline in the Dow/Gold ratio.

The Dow/Gold ratio is currently 9.3, having bounced from the low of 7 it saw in early 2009. We are likely to see a decline in the Dow/Gold ratio to below 7 in 2010.

3) We will see a sharp decline in the Gold/Silver ratio.
4) The U.S. Dollar Index will see short-term bounce, then huge crash.
5) Oil will rise back above $100 per barrel.

We expect oil's next rise above $100 per barrel to be fueled almost entirely by inflation. This time around, it won't matter if there's another substantial decline in oil demand from the U.S. We expect oil prices to rise regardless of if Americans can afford it or not.

6) There will be a move towards a Libertarian third-party.
7) Peter Schiff and Rand Paul will both win Republican primaries and be elected to U.S. Senate.
8) Large 'End the Fed' Protests.
9) Major Food Shortages.

10) Paul Volcker Resigns.

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1 comment:

Marc said...

Love him or hate him, the international investment commentator Jim Rogers reckons that farmers are likely to be the next guys who are going to be parading around in sports cars and not the Wall Street bankers.

In South Africa - a country supposedly well supported in terms of agriculture - we are a net importer of food. It is very simplistic but its tough to believe that our systems fail us to this extent.