Sunday, June 21, 2009

Can knowledge of Collapse save us? Noah Raford: The Hexayurt Project

Summaries below are from The Oil Drum:

==>Complexity comes at a cost, it's hard to turn back once you've got it, and it's value decreases the more of it you have (Tainter).

==> (Based on Panarchy - Gunderson/Holling)
*Multiple states are common in many systems
*It is impossible to predict where tipping points are until it's too late (interactive complexity)
*Functional diversity builds resistance
*Management must cope with surprise and uncertainty

==>Take Home Message:

* Stay light
* Stay smart
* Experiment
* Learn quickly
* Keep multiple options open

Plus: What is a stochastic system?

In the simplest terms, a stochastic system is non-deterministic. That means, like stock markets, like nature, you have stable systems and elements, but you also have random elements that impact of these stable elements, creating uncertain outcomes.

This stands in stark contrast to our euphemistic beliefs in God that reassure us that everything is part of 'God's plan'. If we believe in that, we allow the 'devil' which really comprise these random elements to build up, and of course, that is exactly what is happening.

Find out more here.

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