SHOOT: 40 billion is enough for the world for just over 1 year. 160 billion is quite a lot. This is like a weather forecaster saying, there's a 20-80% chance of rain. Well...er..which is it? Hopefully there is oil at the Arctic. Unfortunately, even if there is, extraction costs will be high, which means the days of cheap oil are over. If you think oil is cheap now, imagine how cheap it is if you don't have a job. So it's an objective statement whichever way you want to inerpret it.