Taleb’s Black Swan theory “refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations.”
The unnerving aspect of swine flu is that if nothing much happens, then we all turn out fine because, well, nothing much happened.
But if the virus mutates in its travels, and comes back in a “second wave” as some far more deadly form, then we could have one hell of a black swan on our hands – with tragic loss implications far bigger and nastier than any event in living memory.
SHOOT: I'll repeat that for those with ADD (that includes you, the Medai) - if the virus mutates in its travels [and btw that's what virusses do], then we could have one hell of a black swan on our hands – far bigger and nastier than any event in living memory.
That's big. That's nasty. And worth paying attention to, or worth paying the price for not paying attention.