Wednesday, May 20, 2009

The recession in a picture [might give you an idea where we're at]

SHOOT: Consider the length of the previous recession. Now complete the rising curve. This is huge.
commercial real estate default

As you can see, they see defaults breaking 7% early next year (the bold line), while the dotted lines show the predictions they made in January, February and March. Trend is not good. Looking forward to see the severity of the spike when they make a projection next month.

Oh, and also, as the modest bump from the last recession show: The scale here is nothing like historical patterns. But you already knew that.

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