Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Commercial Real Estate Defaults: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet - Joe Weisenthal

SHOOT: See why I say talk of 'recovery' is ludicrous right now.

Confirming the view that this is a big deal, this chart shows commercial real estate defaults across various indices, divided by when the mortgages were originated. Not altogether surprising.

The y-axis shows the percentage of defaults, while the x-axis represents months since origination. As the chart shows, the freshest deals, made right before the bubble popped, are reaching key default levels exponentially faster than deals done just a few years earlier. After 9 months, the CMBX5 defaults are well above the number of CMBX1 defaults after 36 months.

Who knows how high and fast CMBX5 will climb. Clearly, history is a very poor guide.
commercial real estate chart
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