Sunday, August 31, 2008
NVDL: It is the wee hours of the morning in the USA, and Gustav has justed cleared Cuba. It is now a Category 3 storm, but it has all day to power up again. The fact that it sustained Cat 4 throughout the night is in itself significant.
"For everyone thinking they can ride this storm out, I have news for you: That will be one of the biggest mistakes you can make in your life."
Nagin said those choosing to remain in their homes should have an ax to chop through their roof when the floodwaters rise.- seattletimes.nwsource.com
NVDL: If one good thing has emerged from Katrina, it is that the communities affected have moved away from complacency and developed instead a rational and healthy respect for these systems. Unfortunately, it takes a firsthand experience to learn this lesson before it is applied. I hope people affected will also help the helpless and infirm, and the very young.
TheOilDrum: We hope those in the path of this behemoth will get out of the way, prepare, and do everything they can to preserve human life. Let's hope this is all a waste of time and that this is not the human tragedy that it looks to be.
The above image is Infra-red since visible light is minimal at night. As day breaks Gustav is likely to be energised even more, building to maximum possible strength towards noon Sunday.
Get advisories on your phone, go here.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A NOAA C-MAN OBSERVATION SITE AT PULASKI SHOAL IN THE FLORIDA KEYS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
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Areas on Hurricane alert.
5 day forecast has Gustav at Cat 5 by Sunday, weakening slightly just before landfall on Monday and Tuesday.
Storm surge - areas affected.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA. THIS WATCH AND WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Below: Gustav ito water vapour
One million flee as Hurricane Gustav revs up
Category 5 storms have sustained winds of more than 249 kilometres per hour. Winds of that speed will create a storm surge of more than five metres, rip off most roofs and completely destroy mobile homes, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON tHE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.
Category 4 storms have winds of 131 to 155 miles (211 to 249 kilometers) an hour (hurricane facts, photos, videos, more).
Australia looked a shadow of the side that defeated the Springboks so convincingly in Durban last weekend and were never in the match once South Africa had scored three tries in the opening 25 minutes.
Amazingly, though, they could still win the Tri-Nations if they beat New Zealand in Brisbane in two weeks, although, on this performance, it looks highly unlikely.
South Africa ran in eight tries, four in each half, as the world champions came to life at the end of an arduous Tri-Nations campaign.
NVDL: Was a great game to watch. Pity Nokwe got injured, and pity the Boks could only come up with this level of carnage at the end of their campaign. But a superb performance, and an indication that this team are the world champs after all.
NVDL: That's a sensible approach.
Latest computer model above.
From tomorrow until landfall, Gustav is projected to be a lethal Category 5 monster, meaning the deadliest storm on the scale, with winds around 250km/h.
Note how well the 'eye' has formed. This is always a sign that a Hurricane packs very deadly winds.
Gustav had already killed more than 80 people in the Caribbean, and if current forecasts hold up, it would make landfall early Tuesday morning along Louisiana's central coast, sparing New Orleans a direct hit.
But forecasters warned it was still too soon to say exactly where the storm will hit, and residents weren't taking any chances judging by the bumper-to-bumper traffic pouring from the city. Gas stations along interstate highways were running out of fuel, and phone circuits were jammed.
NVDL: Jeepers, another nightmare begins.
Then less than a month later a weak tropical storm named Rita followed Katrina into the Loop Current. Thirty hours later it was a Category 5 monster.
Both Katrina and Rita later weakened — which often happens — to Category 3 storms by landfall.
In the last several years, meteorologists have focused more attention on the Loop Current, which is only a couple of hundred miles long and not even 100 miles wide. The evidence linking it to the worst storms is beyond circumstantial, Shay said.
The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government's hurricane research division.
The majority of computer models predict a landfall in Louisiana, west of New Orleans.
In this picture are the sum of our worst fears being realised. A Category 5 monster in the making, tearing through 20% of the USA's oil production capacity. This is bad news for everyone.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Dispatch: Pretoria-based meteorologist Ezekiel Sebego predicted that there would be very rough seas with swells of eight metres and more.
He said an intense cold front accompanied by a well-developed upper trough is also expected. “This is normal at this time of the year as August is usually the windy month and we expect very rough seas with swells,” said Sebego.
However, he said it was not usual for destructive waves to coincide with spring high tides.