Sunday, September 16, 2007
Global Warming Predicates a Permanent El Nino
Hasta La Vista Amazon Rainforest
Sophisticated climate models demonstrated a disturbing trend: that global warming will induce a permanent state of El Nino. El Nino involves the significant increase of surface sea temperatures around the Pacific coastline of Peru. This induces warming in the atmosphere immediately above, and then feeds into worldwide weather systems. Until the present era, El Nino was an undesirable, but temporary phenomenon.
The current trend is for far more frequent El Nino’s, and a worsening of the concomitant infection into world weather systems.
How El Nino Affects You
Firstly, El Nino affects global weather patterns dramatically. For Africa this means flooding in the northern and central regions (currently 14 African countries are experiencing chronic flooding), while in the southern region, chronic and sustained drought is the order of the day (presently happening).
For America, warmer winters are the order of the day in the upper Midwest, while the southwestern area is cooler and wetter. Decreased hurricane activity is possibly (unless global warming is sufficiently high).
Southeast Asia and the Northern Parts of Australia will experience droughts, with the increased threats of fire and unhealthy smog levels.
But the most dangerous effect of El Nino is the persistent drying of Bolivia and the Amazon River Basin. Tropical rainforests require fairly specialized conditions, too little rain, or too warm conditions for a few extra weeks can mean the difference between a rainforest and brush land.
Right now the Amazon is estimated to be absorbing 20% or more of the world’s carbon dioxide (acting as a carbon sink). If the climate models for El Nino are correct, within 50 years the Amazon could have disappeared altogether, and not only will there be no absorbtion of CO2 in this territory, but the sink will begin to act as a giant carbon emitter. Fires especially can play a role in the reversal of the system that converts carbon into organic plant structures.
What underlies the Permament El Nino state is a certain threshold of global warming. Recent El Nino’s have occurred in the following chronology: 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, and 2006-2007.
The numbers suggest that we are almost at a permanent El Nino state.