Tuesday, June 26, 2007
To rue in time
Can we really say that oil at $70 and more is a benign situation? We're also seeing a consistent situation where supply and capacity is being outstripped by demand (whatever the price?).
I defer to Jim Kunstler:
"Every structural element in our financial sector is a jackstraw groaning under a load of false expectation. The hedge funds are only the most elaborate pieces, with their intertwined webs of exponentially unreckoned risk. The equity markets are a three-ringed circus of 'greater fools.' "
Meanwhile in South Africa where I live the stock market has steamed up to just under 30 000, and there's rumors of 'sell in May and go away' happening in early July.
My thinking is simply this: if all economic is underpinned by energy (as breathing oxygen is the given for us walking around everyday), and that energy becomes more expensive, when do the marklets reflect that? My thinking is later, rather than sooner, and too late, rather than just in time.
And what if Israel is irrelevant to the Rest Of The World in the same way that say, Poland or Micronesia is. But based on our self-reinforcing beliefs we allow these conflicts to instead spread to the Rest Of The World.